Five Dark Horses to Watch at the 2026 US Open in Flushing
Beyond the top seeds, a group of players is arriving in New York with recent form, a point to prove, or a game perfectly suited to the conditions at the USTA National Tennis Center.
By Alexan SL · August 1, 2026 · 5 min read
FLUSHING, N.Y. — Every Grand Slam produces its share of upsets, and the US Open has historically been kinder to outsiders than Wimbledon or Roland Garros. The hard courts of Flushing reward aggression, serve, and the ability to grind in oppressive late-summer heat — qualities that can elevate a player several notches above their seeding.
Frances Tiafoe, United States, Seeded No. 11. The crowd at Arthur Ashe treats Tiafoe like a hometown hero regardless of where he is in the draw, and for good reason. He reached the US Open semifinals in 2022 and has consistently performed above his ranking at Flushing. His powerful forehand and electric personality feed off the New York atmosphere in ways that can be genuinely intimidating for an opponent trying to close out a close set.
Holger Rune, Denmark, Seeded No. 8. Rune spent most of the clay season fighting through a shoulder injury but returned at Wimbledon looking comfortable and aggressive. His hard-court game has improved significantly under a new fitness regimen, and he arrives in New York having posted three consecutive wins in a Washington tune-up exhibition.
Jasmine Paolini, Italy, Seeded No. 5 in the women’s draw. The Italian reached the Roland Garros final two years ago and has since added considerable hard-court results. Her two-handed backhand and exceptional footwork translate well to fast surfaces, and she tends to perform at her best when the atmosphere intensifies in later rounds.
Taylor Fritz, United States, Seeded No. 6. Fritz reached the US Open semifinals in 2024 and is one of the biggest servers in the men’s game. On a fast hard court, his delivery can be an outright weapon. His baseline consistency has also evolved considerably, and a deep run in New York would position him for a career-best ranking.
Mirra Andreeva, Russia, Seeded No. 12 in the women’s draw. The 19-year-old has posted back-to-back top-ten results at majors this year and is one of the most talked-about young players on tour. Her court coverage, patience from the baseline, and composure under pressure are unusual for her age, and several WTA veterans have described her as the most dangerous lower-seeded player in the draw.